Dr Bevan Blair

We currently believe that there will be a slowdown in the world economy over the next 12 months and that the chance of recession has increased significantly since the beginning of the year. We therefore have maintained an overweight duration position in bonds, adding to sovereign debt as we believe it is priced accordingly.

Government debt and deficits will continue to rise, placing inflation under the spotlight, but on balance, we feel central banks will look to ease monetary conditions rather than tighten them, despite this.

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