Phil Wellington

Recent market dynamics have been shaped by a confluence of policy uncertainty, shifting inflation expectations, and geopolitical risk. While the global economy remains structurally sound, investor sentiment has been rattled by the unpredictability of US trade and fiscal policy, with elevated tariffs and expansive stimulus plans fuelling concerns over inflation and bond market volatility. The risk of a disorderly depreciation of the US dollar, compounded by weakening safe-haven status, adds further complexity to portfolio construction.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions—particularly given the US's recent actions against Iran and the potential for retaliation—have heightened global risk aversion. In this environment, regional diversification, income strategies, and exposure to real assets are increasingly critical. Europe's fiscal pivot and improving domestic demand offer a counterbalance to US-centric risks, while China's muted consumer recovery underscores the fragility of global growth. Against this backdrop, we must prioritise resilience, diversification and strategies that can weather any number of scenarios.

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