William Dinning

Our asset allocation is neutral the major asset classes. Government bonds are trading with the most attractive yields on offer since the GFC. We have a preference for gilts over US treasuries. The UK fiscal path is not sustainable in the long term, but the Government has remained committed to its fiscal rules, which should help alleviate near-term concerns. The Bank of England's quantitative tightening programme is scheduled for review in September, and our view is that it will be amended, providing further flexibility to the Chancellor while tightening the supply of gilts in the market. Given the Trump administration’s recent political wins, the left tail risk is that Trump may feel emboldened to play hard ball post the ‘new’ tariffs deadline of August 1st.

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